I'm posting these kind of early this year?
What pisses me off is that I'll most likely be seeing 127 Hours, Blue Valentine and Rabbit Hole in the days after the ceremony. *fists to the sky*
I'm going to do a post tomorrow showing percentages like I usually do, but this is mostly just to show how close or far apart certain races are. You're dying for it.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
BIUTIFUL (Mexico)
DOGTOOTH (Greece)
IN A BETTER WORLD (Denmark)
INCENDIES (Canada)
OUTSIDE THE LAW (Algeria)
WILL WIN: In a Better World
SHOULD WIN: Of the nominees, I’ve only seen the disturbing dark comedy Dogtooth. So, I guess I’d choose that.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
EXIT THOUGH THE GIFT SHOP
GASLAND
INSIDE JOB
RESTREPO
WASTE LAND
WILL WIN: Inside Job
SHOULD WIN: I’ve only seen Exit Through the Gift Shop, which was a fun and maddening ride.
ANIMATED FEATURE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
THE ILLUSIONIST
TOY STORY 3
WILL WIN: Pixar triumphs yet again with Toy Story 3. Yawn.
SHOULD WIN: How To Train Your Dragon (I haven’t seen The Illusionist.)
MAKEUP
BARNEY’S VERSION
THE WAY BACK
THE WOLFMAN
WILL WIN: Wolfman may have been a big box office bomb, but it has the showiest work here. Barney’s has old people makeup, which the Academy loves. I’ll go with Wolfman.
SHOULD WIN: I’ve only seen The Wolfman. I’m a little confused as to how it got nominated as a lot of that was CGI-enhanced and I thought that wasn’t allowed here?
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Black Swan’s makeup – between both Nina’s look and her rashes – are already iconic. And if they can nominate Wolfman for being equal parts makeup and effects, why not Splice?
ORIGINAL SONG
“IF I RISE” – 127 HOURS
“COMING HOME” – COUNTRY STRONG
“I SEE THE LIGHT” – TANGLED
“WE BELONG TOGETHER” – TOY STORY 3
WILL WIN: This is 127 Hours best shot at a win, but expect Toy Story 3 to win because it’s the most seen of the nominees and I doubt anyone really cares.
SHOULD WIN: I’ve only seen Toy Story 3 of these nominees, and even I don’t remember that song??? This category sucks. I’d vote for the 127 song – which I’ve never heard – just because that would make Dido an Oscar winner.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: I’ll go with the consensus and say Burlesque should have gotten a nomination just so Cher could perform on the telecast. Not Christina, she’ll mess up the lyrics then fall down. I hope that song from Gnomeo and Juliet is nominated next year so Elton John and Lady Gaga can perform on the show. See, I care so little about this category that I’m already looking forward to next year’s nominees.
ORIGINAL SCORE
127 HOURS
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
INCEPTION
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech forgettable music takes it over Social’s tension builder.
SHOULD WIN: While the prospect of a Nine Inch Nails member getting an Oscar is undeniably awesome – and I do love Network’s music, I think Dragon’s score is a nice throwback to grand epics and really enhances the film.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Ghost Writer’s elegant, moody compositions – particularly the one that plays over the closing of the film
SOUND MIXING
INCEPTION
THE KING’S SPEECH
SALT
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT
WILL WIN: Inception, because it’s the loudest
SHOULD WIN: Inception, because it’s the best (I’ve seen all the nominees.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Black Swan’s tricky mix of score, silence, feet lightly tapping and SWEET SWEET GIRL. Also, not that it ever had a shot, The Crazies created a broad soundscape of nightmarish action and unsettling calm.
SOUND EDITING
INCEPTION
TOY STORY 3
TRON: LEGACY
TRUE GRIT
UNSTOPPABLE
WILL WIN: Inception
SHOULD WIN: Inception (I haven’t seen Tron: Legacy or Unstoppable)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Crazies, for the entire car wash sequence
VISUAL EFFECTS
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 1
HEREAFTER
INCEPTION
IRON MAN 2
WILL WIN: Inception’s folding cities are unmatched
SHOULD WIN: Inception (I haven’t seen Hereafter or Harry Potter 7.1)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: There were two other films that were eligible in this category that did not get nominated: Tron: Legacy and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World. I support a Scott Pilgrim nod.
ART DIRECTION
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 1
INCEPTION
THE KING’S SPEECH
TRUE GRIT
WILL WIN: The love for The King’s Speech will narrowly allow it to pull out a victory here over the flashier Alice In Wonderland and Inception
SHOULD WIN: The architects in Inception created an unforgettable dreamscape (Of the nominees here, I haven’t seen Harry Potter 7.1)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Shutter Island’s insane asylum
COSTUME DESIGN
ALICE IN WONDERLAND
I AM LOVE
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE TEMPEST
TRUE GRIT
WILL WIN: Aside from Bonham Carter, the only other good thing about Alice in Wonderland was its costumes. Always vote for the biggest here – and that’s Alice.
SHOULD WIN: While I Am Love taking this for its styling of an affluent Italian family would make me happy, Alice really does deserve this. (In this category, I haven’t seen The Tempest.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Thinking outside the box here and honoring last year’s winner to take note of more modern costuming, The Fighter’s spot-on and at times hilarious early 90’s wardrobe could join this strong slate and not feel out of place.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT
WILL WIN: True Grit’s Roger Deakins takes it on his 9th nomination – finally!
SHOULD WIN: Black Swan’s gorgeous and frightening ballet sequences top an immaculate lineup
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Shutter Island
FILM EDITING
127 HOURS
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
WILL WIN: One of the few categories where The Social Network will have a cake walk victory over The King’s Speech
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network, not just for those flashbacks but for keeping up with the rapid fire dialogue
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: In one of the worst snubs the technical categories have had in years, Inception was omitted. The Nolan snub might make sense as they’ve overlooked him before in the directing field, but this one makes no sense whatsoever. The second half of the movie, jumping between – what? – five narratives without ever losing pace, is an editing showcase.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANOTHER YEAR – Mike Leigh
THE FIGHTER – Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson and Keith Dorrington
INCEPTION – Christopher Nolan
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT – Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg
THE KING’S SPEECH – David Seidler
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech
SHOULD WIN: King’s is a deserving winner, but I much prefer Nolan’s innovative, layered Inception. (Of the nominees in this category, I haven’t seen Another Year.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Please Give – when will Nicole Holofcener get recognized by the Academy???
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 HOURS – Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle
THE SOCIAL NETWORK – Aaron Sorkin
TOY STORY 3 – Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
TRUE GRIT – Joel and Ethan Coen
WINTER’S BONE – Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini
WILL WIN: The Social Network – lockiest lock of the night.
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network (Of the nominees, I haven’t seen 127 Hours.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: The Ghost Writer – a smart, adult political thriller with an absorbing story and intriguing characters
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE as Dicky Ekland in THE FIGHTER
JOHN HAWKES as Teardrop in WINTER’S BONE
JEREMY RENNER as James “Jem” Coughlin in THE TOWN
MARK RUFFALO as Paul in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
GEOFFREY RUSH as Lionel Logue in THE KING’S SPEECH
WILL WIN: Christian Bale, overcoming a potential King’s Speech steamroller
SHOULD WIN: Though I’m happy Hawkes and Ruffalo are finally getting their due and Geoffrey Rush is one of my favorite things about The King’s Speech, Bale deserves this. (I’ve seen all of the nominees in this category.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Andrew Garfield as the heart of The Social Network
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS as Charlene Fleming in THE FIGHTER
HELENA BONHAM CARTER as Queen Elizabeth in THE KING’S SPEECH
MELISSA LEO as Alice Ward in THE FIGHTER
HAILEE STEINFELD as Mattie Ross in TRUE GRIT
JACKI WEAVER as Janine “Smurf” Cody in ANIMAL KINGDOM
WILL WIN: I can almost safely say Weaver won’t win. Next out is probably Adams, whose understated work will probably be ignored due to her costars’ strong method acting. The remaining three should probably have speeches ready. Bonham Carter earns points for her wonderful BAFTA acceptance speech and I get the feeling an Oscar speech from her would be the highlight of the night. However, even she acknowledges she doesn’t deserve it and is just riding the film’s coattails. A Steinfeld win would be a way for voters to honor True Grit, even if it is a total joke this is considered a “supporting” performance when she is in about 95% of the film. It would make a lovely winner story that she wins for her first film, and that the remake is all about her when the original was all about John Wayne. That leaves Leo, whose stupid self-campaign was one of the most epic crash-and-burn award season moments I’ve ever seen. Twas a joy to behold. While that is her biggest disadvantage, she has won most of the major awards and there is no clear alternative. I say she wins, but it will be a photo finish.
SHOULD WIN: I enjoyed all five of the performances in this category, but I don’t love any of them. I’d vote for Amy Adams, if only because she’s still owed an Oscar for her best-of-the-decade performance in Junebug. However, her best chance at getting to take center stage at the Kodak with an Oscar in hand will be her upcoming performance as Janis Joplin in the biopic Get It While You Can.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: To me, there was no shortage of terrific supporting work by actresses this year. Probably why I was so disappointed with the final slate of this category. Here’s just a few of my faves of 2010: Marion Cotillard as the femme fatale turned tragic heroine of Inception; Olivia Williams as the icy Prime Minister’s wife in The Ghost Writer; Dale Dickey as the withholding relative in Winter’s Bone; Ann Guilbert and Amanda Peet as mean girls of different ages in Please Give; Naomi Watts as a nasty attorney in Mother and Child; Patricia Clarkson and Michelle Williams (like Marion) terrorize Leonardo’s mind in Shutter Island; lastly, if Focus had been smart, they should have campaigned both Annette Bening and Julianne Moore in supporting for The Kids Are All Right, given it is a genuine ensemble film and all 5 characters have about the same screen time.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
JAVIER BARDEM as Uxbal in BIUTIFUL
JEFF BRIDGES as Rooster Cogburn in TRUE GRIT
JESSE EISENBERG as Mark Zuckerberg in THE SOCIAL NETWORK
COLIN FIRTH as King George VI in THE KING’S SPEECH
JAMES FRANCO as Aron Ralston in 127 HOURS
WILL WIN: Colin Firth is the acting categories’ biggest lock
SHOULD WIN: Jesse Eisenberg for filling a computer nerd with subtle menace and nuance (I haven’t seen Biutiful or 127 Hours.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: If they gave him a nomination for that piece of shit Blood Diamond, they should give Leonardo Dicaprio a nod for either of his terrific turns in Shutter Island or Inception
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
ANNETTE BENING as Nic in THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
NICOLE KIDMAN as Becca Corbett in RABBIT HOLE
JENNIFER LAWRENCE as Ree Dolly in WINTER’S BONE
NATALIE PORTMAN as Nina Sayers / The Swan Queen in BLACK SWAN
MICHELLE WILLIAMS as Cindy in BLUE VALENTINE
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman’s turn as a disturbed ballerina should have no trouble overcoming Annette Bening’s supposed due-ness
SHOULD WIN: Natalie Portman, not just because she’ll never come close to achieving what she does in Black Swan, but because it is easily the best in a very strong field. (I haven’t seen Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole.) Annette Bening will win an honorary Oscar in her 70’s, and Michelle Williams will probably have an Oscar in the next five years.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Emma Stone as the savvy faux-harlot in Easy A
DIRECTING
Darren Aronofsky – BLACK SWAN
David O. Russell – THE FIGHTER
Tom Hooper – THE KING’S SPEECH
David Fincher – THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Joel and Ethan Coen – TRUE GRIT
WILL WIN: David Fincher will prove once again that films that win Directing but lose Picture win out in the long run
SHOULD WIN: Darren Aronofsky for turning ballet into a sexy fever dream. Though I’ll say it’s a good year for cinema if you have to choose between Fincher, Aronofsky, the Coens and Russell. (I’ve seen all of the nominees in this category.)
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Christopher. Fucking. Nolan.
BEST PICTURE
127 HOURS
BLACK SWAN
THE FIGHTER
INCEPTION
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY 3
TRUE GRIT
WINTER’S BONE
WILL WIN: The King’s Speech, the standard Weinstein World War II period movie that old people love, will win out over the youth-oriented competition.
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED: Please Give – an expertly acted, perceptively scripted and directed character study of the guilt inherent to superficial modern living
(I haven’t seen 127 Hours. Curse you, Fox, for releasing the film on DVD 2 days after the Oscars. The remaining 9 nominees I will rank.)
9. TOY STORY 3 - Admittedly, I’m not the biggest fan of Pixar. They are about the most overrated thing in modern filmmaking – right up there with shaky cam, torture porn, actors smashing dishes and quirky indie dramedies that look like VW commercials. I’ve enjoyed their last 3 films – Ratatouille, Wall-E and Up – the latter two are among the ten best films of the respective years. I felt no real connection to Toy Story 3, not even the ending which everyone apparently needed tissues to get through.
8. THE FIGHTER – Shame that this is the least interesting film David O. Russell has made, and yet it has become his most nominated and highest grossing. I did like The Fighter, the problem is that it is a little too conventional and there’s nothing unique about Russell’s approach to the material. Odd, because I usually love these everyday-American-character true story movies. There are many memorable lines, and the acting as mentioned earlier is stellar from everyone. I did really like that there wasn’t that much emphasis placed on the ending fight. A crowdpleaser to be sure, and a solid good movie. But nothing more.
7. TRUE GRIT – The least Coen-y movie the Coen Brothers have ever made. Gorgeous to look at and a pleasant enough diversion for its running time, it just fails to hit the heights of a lot of their previous efforts. For being such a big hit and their most nominated film, it feels like such a minor footnote in their filmography. Though, really, what films are going to touch Fargo and No Country for Old Men?? Bridges and Damon are good, about what you’d expect in their roles. I do love the added weight Josh Brolin and especially an unrecognizable Barry Pepper add to the latter portion of the film, both doing classic genre performances in minimal screentime. Thinking about it now, I kind of wish they had played Cogburn and LaBeouf. Hailee Steinfeld is a genuine find, and its easy to see it was worth the hunt through 15,000 girls to get her. This is genuinely Mattie’s movie, and everyone else is supporting.
6. THE KING’S SPEECH – The most fitting thing I can say about this movie is something I read on a blog: It’s one of the best films of 1993. True. The craftsmanship that went into creating this and not making it look like a typical lush, fetishized period piece is actually deserving of the nods it received. It has a dull, foggy look, which fits the story well. The acting by everyone is terrific, and the screenplay is among the year’s best. I think Hooper will make a great director someday, but this feels too much like something that used to litter the Oscars back in the mid 90’s. The best way I can put: The King’s Speech deserves the nominations, it doesn’t deserve the wins.
5. THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT – It never quite hits that “indie dramedy that looks like a VW commercial” I mentioned earlier, but it comes close. A very good little movie with one of the year’s best ensemble performances, and one of the very best acted scenes of 2010 courtesy of Annette Bening and her dinner table realization that her family has slipped out of her grasp. My minor problem with this film is that I feel it would have benefited to make it an all out farce. It flirts with the idea, but never quite gets there. Though thankfully, its never bogged down in being an issue movie. It just lacks the kind of casual observation that makes movies like this great. While Annette, Julianne and Mark all received accolades for their work, I do wish Mia Wasicawska and Josh Hutcherson had been singled out a little more. Those kids are more than all right! (Sorry, couldn’t resist!)
4. WINTER’S BONE – If you remade True Grit for the modern day, it might look a lot like this. Rather than a dead father, he’s a missing crystal meth dealer. Rather than wanting vengeance, the central teenage girl wants to save her family. Instead of the gang that killed him, its her entire extended family that seems to be hiding something, both terrifying her and protecting her often in the same breath. And in place of the US Marshall is an estranged uncle that can get her what she needs. Of course, the Old West is now the Ozarks – an equally dangerous terrain. Anchored by a performance of true grit, Jennifer Lawrence’s star-making turn is reminiscent of the determined cowboys of those old westerns. Only my exact problem with those old westerns is now resolved: she’s not some untouchable icon, she’s a fully realized human character. The film does get a little convoluted in its third act, but the filmmakers delicate observation of life in those parts is exactly why I think this is the type of film that needs to be put out more.
3. THE SOCIAL NETWORK – Awhile back, I set out to make a list of films released since the new millennium that captured the spirit of the Aughts. You know? The way Annie Hall, All the Presidents Men, Network, Kramer Vs Kramer and Nashville captured the 70’s, the way Wall Street, Working Girl, the John Hughes teen comedies and masked slasher films showed the 80’s, and the way Pulp Fiction, Scream, American Beauty, Thelma and Louise and Seven defined the 90’s. What did I come up with? The Bourne Ultimatum and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. This was obviously not a successful endeavor. So, thankfully, months later, this movie opened. Perfectly scripted, acted and directed, the film is a portrait of a disconnected generation that has no idea human interaction can exist without something that needs plugged in. While the hyperbolic reviews instantly declared it the best film of this generation, I’d step back and simply say it’s the best film about this generation.
2. BLACK SWAN – Equal parts The Red Shoes, Repulsion and Showgirls, Darren Aronofsky’s hypnotic film may be the one that holds up best in the future. The film’s mix of high and low brow elements create my favorite kind of film, just the right kind of camp. Did anyone ever think Swan Lake could turn into a movie, let alone a borderline horror movie? Or that this old fashioned horror could merge seamlessly with classic elements of stage drama (overbearing mothers! lethal rivals!)? The idea of Mila Kunis replacing Natalie Portman replacing Winona Ryder alone is brilliance. Under Aronofsky’s sure hand, it all comes together to form an experience audiences will be swept up in for years to come. After all, it has entered the zeitgeist (zeitgeist! Social Network?) big time, being parodied on 30 Rock before it even opened and ending up crossing $100 million in one of the most surprising box office runs in years.
1. INCEPTION – Part of me wants to hate this movie for it turning me into a fanboy. A cinematic dream that you won’t want to wake up from, this Christopher Nolan (fuck you, Academy!) dreamworld is exactly what a blockbuster should be: a technical showstopper, filled with big ideas (dreams within dreams within dreams that are designed!), fantastic acting (MARION!), marvelous visual effects (folding cities!), thrilling action sequences (a car dropping into water in slow-mo manages to build tension better than a clock counting down to detonation!) damanged leading men (LEO!), jaw dropping set pieces (twirling hotel hallways!), sexy sidekicks (JGL! JUNO! HARDY!), and the last thing you’d think necessary for your modern blockbuster: Edith Piaf (MARION?). All of this combines to make the most audacious big budget blockbuster since the genre’s 80’s heyday, a film that isn’t just an adrenaline rush in individual scenes, but for its entire breathtaking second half. Bizarre that all these elements came together without a director or editor?
And as for the shorts, which I've seen none of:
Documentary Short: Strangers No More
Animated Short: Day & Night
Live Action Short: God of Love
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