Hey, I have seen a lot of these! If King's Speech takes top prize at either of these, we're fucked.
DGA:
WILL WIN - David Fincher
Alt - Tom Hooper
My personal ranking:
1. Nolan
2. Aronofksy
3. Fincher
4. Hooper
5. Russell
SAG:
WILL WIN:
Ensemble - The Fighter
ALT - The Social Network
Actor - Colin Firth
Alt - James Franco
Actress - Natalie Portman
Alt - Annette Bening
Supp. Actor - Christian Bale
Alt - Geoffrey Rush
Supp. Actress - Melissa Leo
Alt - Amy Adams
I think supporting actress is the trickiest. Kunis and Carter are out. Steinfeld could take it, but I went with Leo because she's the vet. Adams has three prior nominations so she's not too far behind. My problem is I don't recall a film ever winning 3 awards here before? Actually, Chicago did. Way to correct yourself, Darren. The Fighter doesn't feel like the juggernaut Chicago was, so I think one of those awards it won't get.
Personal ranking:
ENSEMBLE
1. The Kids Are All Right - most ensemble-y
2. The Social Network - actual best acted of the bunch, sad that Rooney and Rashida aren't listed because of how they give credit here
3. The Fighter - most actor friendly, lots of scenery chewing, method acting
4. The King's Speech - good acting but really only 2 highlighted roles, not a genuine ensemble film
5. Black Swan - really not an ensemble film, though I'm glad Cassell and Hershey get their due
SUPPORTING ACTOR: (solid lineup minus Renner, who I usually love but is really overrated in The Town)
1. Bale
2. Rush
3. Hawkes
4. Ruffalo
5. Renner
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: (Adams is due because she's still owed for Junebug)
1. Adams
2. Leo
3. Steinfeld
4. Kunis
5. Carter
IN TV - I hope Modern Family can finally beat Glee, but I doubt it will.
ENSEMBLE COMEDY - Glee
Alt - Modern Family
ENSEMBLE DRAMA - Mad Men
Alt - Boardwalk Empire (probably too new to win)
ACTOR - DRAMA - Cranston
Alt - Hamm
ACTRESS DRAMA - Margulies
Alt - Moss
ACTOR COMEDY - Colfer (I'm thinking he actually could pull this off)
Alt - Burrell (or Baldwin, SAG voters are really lazy!)
ACTRESS COMEDY - Lynch
Alt - Vergara (or Falco, these are always so random Betty White will probably win)
Actor Movie/Miniseries - Pacino (ugh! ANOTHER AWFUL SPEECH)
Alt - Ramirez
Actress Movie/Miniseries - Danes
Alt - Ryder
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