Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Box: Just how little are these women?

1. Night School - $28m / $28m / $90m
2. Small Foot - $25m / $25m / $90m
3. The House With a Clock In Its Walls - $15m / $47.5m / $85m
4. Hell Fest - $7m / $7m / $16m
5. A Simple Favor - $6.5m / $43m / $60m
6. The Nun - $5m / $108.5m / $120m
7. The Predator - $4m / $48m / $56m
**Crazy Rich Asians - $4m / $165.5m / $178m
9. White Boy Rick - $2.5m / $22m / $27m
10. Peppermint - $2m / $34m / $38m
**Little Women - $1.5m / $1.5m / $4m

A promising weekend before a strong October slate! Night School and Small Foot will wage a strong battle for the top spot, though both will do very respectable numbers. Hell Fest looks like a non-starter and will only be helped - if it is - by how strong the genre is right now. Little Women is barely being released wide so it probably won't make the top 10. House With a Clock In Its Wall did very well last weekend and hopefully won't be too crushed by the other family film opening this weekend. I'm all for more family-friendly Halloween themed movies. I know, I've said this before. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is showing some very nice legs. Blake is really getting good at these modestly budgeted, $50-60m grossers.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Box: House With a Co...Yeah, that's an easy porn title.

1. The House With a Clock In Its Walls - $20m / $20m / $70m
2. A Simple Favor - $9m / $31m / $50m
**The Predator - $9m / $41m / $58m
4. The Nun - $8.5m / $99m / $116m
5. Crazy Rich Asians - $5.5m / $158m / $175m
6. Fahrenheit 11/9 - $5m / $5m / $14m
7. White Boy Rick - $4.5m / $16.5m / $25m
8. Peppermint - $3m / $29.5m / $35m
**Life Itself - $3m / $3m / $8m
10. Searching - $2m / $23m / $27m
***The Meg - $2m / $140m / $144m

***Assassination Nation - $1.5m / $1.5m / $3m

House With a Clock will be an easy #1. More of these family Halloween movies, I say! The race for #2 should be interesting, as only A Simple Favor has positive reaction. The Predator looks to fall as hard as The Nun did in its second weekend. Fahrenheit 11/9 is hard to predict as it just looks a little too broad and unfocused to breakout. I still have no fucking clue what Life Itself is about, and reviews are awful. The This Is Us connection won't help. I wasn't aware Assassination Nation was going wide. I haven't seen any trailers in theaters or any TV spots, so a spot in the top 10 will be tough. It does look like something up my alley - like The Purge meets Heathers.


Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Trailer: Captain Marvel

Brie Larson stars as the lea...OMG BLOCKBUSTER VIDEO!!!!


Monday, September 17, 2018

Trailer #2: "Mary Poppins Returns"

This is going to be money printing machine. Another billion in Disney's purse? No surprise, Blunt looks like she nailed it.


Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Box: Crazy Missing White Ladies

1. The Predator - $27m / $27m / $68m
2. The Nun - $21.5m / $89.5m / $120m
3. A Simple Favor - $10m / $10m / $30m
4. Crazy Rich Asians - $8.5m / $149m / $175m
5. Peppermint - $7m / $25m / $38m
**White Boy Rick - $7m / $7m / $20m
7. The Meg - $3.5m / $136.5m / $144m
8. Searching - $3m / $19.5m / $26m
**Unbroken: Path To Redemption - $3m / $3m / $9m
10. Christopher Robin - $2.5m / $95.5m / $101m

I'm not sure if the controversy will harm The Predator that much, as most have probably made their minds up whether they are going to see it or not when the first trailer dropped. The last Predators film only did $52m domestic, so this will be a tiny step up. The Nun did huge biz last weekend, but with a "C" Cinemascore it's drops will probably be brutal. $100m is locked, though. Maybe it'll be like the Annabelle franchise and the second film will be a vast improvement. A Simple Favor looks fun and has had some clever marketing. With decent reviews, it might be able to do modest numbers. White Boy Rick seems like a non-event. Reviews are rather mediocre. Lastly is Unbroken: Path To Redemption. I haven't seen any marketing and I'm not sure if this is a sequel to the 2004 Jolie adaptation?

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Best Popular Film goes to...

...no one.

Thank god.

The Academy, at least "for the time being", has cancelled plans to add a category honoring achievement in popular film-making. (Whatever the fuck that is!)

They are still sticking to their decision to excise potentially 6-8 categories from the live broadcast. They will be presented during the commercial breaks. That still sucks, though I've sort of resigned that this idea has been coming for a long time and was somewhat inevitable.

Perhaps the Academy realized Black Panther and the potential award and box-office juggernaut A Star Is Born will be among the Best Picture nominees, and this might help ratings. If only the Academy would realize those films victories might come in categories that will now air during commercials.

As always with the Oscars, it's one step forward, two steps back.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Trailer #2: Halloween

Yeeeessssss OMG! This looks amazing and I'm loving how strongly the production design and cinematography depict a fall environment. That's a really underrated aspect as far as this series is concerned.

Box: Nunny Money

1. The Nun - $38m / $38m / $95m
2. Crazy Rich Asians - $13m / $135.5m / $180m
3. Peppermint - $9m / $9m / $24m
4. The Meg - $5m / $130.5m / $140m
5. Mission Impossible Fallout - $3.5m / $212m / $220m
**Searching - $3.5m / $13.5m / $22m
7. Operation Finale - $3m / $14m / $20m
**Christopher Robin - $3m / $91.5m / $100m
9. Alpha - $2.5m / $32.5m / $37m
**Blackkklansman - $2.5m / $43m / $48m

**God Bless the Broken Road - $1.5m / $1.5m / $4m

None of the three openers have reviews up yet, so that's a good sign! The Nun, of course, is review proof. This looks to be the kickoff of a surprisingly exciting fall season. Both September and October have some promising performers, if not huge breakouts. Though there is the potential for those. Peppermint feels very light as far as buzz. Crazy Rich Asians continues to impress, but Searching was a very potent performer last weekend. Between those and The Meg, it's almost like inclusive movies make money. Gee, whodathunk?

Next week I'll be doing my summer movie review.

Trailer #2: "The Favourite"

Exquisite reviews from Venice and Telluride make this an early Oscar, umm, favorite. This just looks fantastic and right up my alley. Lathimos continues to impress me and each film of his is better than the last. All three ladies are prime for award nominations, though Colman looks to be a winner.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Box: Kin, A.X.L. and Alpha are all the same movie, right?

3-day / Total So Far / Projected Final Gross

1. Crazy Rich Asians - $22m / $110.5m / $195m
2. The Meg - $10m / $120m / $140m
3. Mission Impossible Fallout - $6.5m / $204m / $217m
4. Kin - $6m / $6m / $17m
5. Christopher Robin - $5.5m / $85.5m / $97m
6. Happytime Murders - $4m / $16.5m / $24m
**Mile 22 - $4m / $32m / $39m
**Alpha - $4m / $27m / $34m
**Blackkklansman - $4m / $38m / $46m
**Searching - $4m / $4.5m / $12m
**Operation Finale - $3.5m / $4m / $11m

Crazy Rich Asians threepeats. It's run is insane and $200m looks to be in the cards. Depends on how well it holds up over the long weekend. Kin and Operation Finale (which opened today) are the only wide releases, while Searching expands after a promising gross in 9 theaters last weekend. The grosses for the first two are up in the air. At least the top 3 are ensuring summer goes out with a bang and not a whimper like last year. The Nun opens next weekend, continuing the Warner Bros. domination.

Thursday, August 23, 2018

Trailer #2: Suspiria

Second trailer for Luca Guadagnino's horror remake of the Dario Argento classic. This one delivers more of the cast and more of the witches.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Box: Well, it's not quite a mop. It's not quite a puppet. But man...

1. Crazy Rich Asians - $17m / $68m / $135m
2. The Meg - $12m / $104m / $132m
3. The Happytime Murders - $10m / $10m / $25m
4. Mission: Impossible Fallout - $6.5m / $192m / $210m
**Mile 22 - $6.5m / $26m / $38m
**Christopher Robin - $6.5m / $78m / $96m
7. Alpha - $6m / $20.5m / $32m
8. Blackkklansman - $5m / $31.5m / $45m
9. Hotel Transylvania 3 - $3m / $159m / $168m
10. AXL - $2.5m / $2.5m / $6m

There are two other movies opening: Papillon opens in 500+ theaters, but buzz and marketing have been minimal. Beautifully Broken is another religious themed drama, so who knows? It might do more than AXL, which I don't think I've seen any marketing for. Happytime Murders could've been a nice late summer breakout had it been good, but as expected reviews are pretty brutal. There's always an audience for lowbrow comedy, but even this looks like it might struggle given there are much better options. Crazy Rich Asians opened slightly higher than I expected and held terrifically throughout the weekend, so a very leggy run looks to be in order.


Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Box: By Monday, they'll be Super Crazy Rich.

1. Crazy Rich Asians - $22m / $32m / $90m
2. The Meg - $19.5m / $83m / $130m
3. Mile 22 - $15m / $15m / $45m
4. Mission: Impossible Fallout - $10.5m / $181m / $210m
5. Christopher Robin - $8.5m / $66.5m / $90m
6. Blackkklansman - $7m / $22.5m / $40m
**Alpha - $7m / $7m / $20m
8. Slender Man - $4m / $20m / $28m
9. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again - $3.5m / $111.5m / $122m
**Spy Who Dumped Me - $3.5m / $31m / $38m
**Hotel Transylvania 3 - $3.5m / $153.5m / $162m

Asians is headed toward a $6m Wednesday opening, so it should be locked for at least $30m 5-day with that number. It does have a chance at some frontloading, but the great reviews and word of mouth will help with legs. Mark "Give Me Oscars Cuz I'm Popular" Wahlberg's latest collaboration with Peter Berg - Mile 22 - also opens. The Meg overperforming last weekend might put a dent in that one, along with the other opener Alpha. Delayed for almost half a year, the caveman/wolf friendship tale will get some IMAX theaters, but I doubt it breaks out of single digits even if reviews are better than expected. In limited, Glenn Close's potential Oscar vehicle The Wife opens in a handful of theaters.

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

I just...Ugh. *The Oscars*

Well, by now you've heard. (All 2.2 of you who read this.)

The Academy has issued a list of changes to the 91st and 92nd ceremonies.

First off is the addition of a Popular Film category. Details will be revealed later on.

Second off is that the show will be streamlined to three hours and commercial breaks will be where some of the "smaller" categories will be handed out.

Third is that the 92nd show will be held on February 9th, roughly 2-3 weeks earlier than usual. This isn't really a surprise, but don't they realize that every other award show is just going to move up, too? Also, this means Moonlight and Spotlight probably wouldn't have won Best Picture if they had that early date.

The first thing is what is huge now on social media. Everyone is against it. Me, too. A lot of the speculation is around Black Panther. Was this a way to ensure it gets a nomination? Is this a way to appease the new overlords (Disney) of just about everything (ABC, Marvel, Fox)? Won't this category be exclusively won by Marvel year in, year out?

The second thing is what people should be most pissed off about. I figured once the show dropped to 26 million viewers this year, the Academy would do something reactionary. I figured they might do an entirely separate ceremony (much like the Honorary Oscars get now) for the technical awards. Like the Emmys do, but this is even worse.

For more details on these ghastly changes, here is Variety's coverage and Kyle Buchanan of Vulture. He really nails it:

Take the first big change, the Academy’s commitment to streamline the Oscars to three hours. At first, this sounds like a great idea, because the annoying people in your life always complain that the Oscars are too long. Well, it’s not for them! The Oscars should always be long, because we wait all year for this show and those stray, long moments are where all the weird and memorable shit tends to happen! Nobody complains about the Super Bowl running 20 minutes over, because that’s masc, I guess.

Box: Live Every Week Like It's Shark Week

1. The Meg - $20m / $20m / $60m
**Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $20m / $162m / $215m
3. Christopher Robin - $16.5m / $54m / $100m
4. Slender Man - $13m / $13m / $30m
5. BlackkKlansman - $10m / $10m / $35m
6. Spy Who Dumped Me - $6.5m / $24m / $40m
7. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again - $5.5m / $103m / $120m
**Hotel Transylvania 3 - $5.5m / $147m / $165m
9. The Equalizer 2 - $5m / $89m / $102m
10. Ant Man and the Wasp - $3.5m / $203m / $212m
***The Incredibles 2 - $3.5m / $589.5m / $600m
***Dog Days - $3m / $4m / $8.5m


I think this is the first time I've ever predicted a *tie* for #1. This tie is really more for I have no idea what will end up being #1. The Meg feels like it should have gotten an easy victory here but buzz feels very light. Then again, the past two summers have seen shark movies overperform (The Shallows, 47 Meters Down). Slender Man was supposed to open later in the summer and the move may curtail its opening. Blackkklansman was supposed to open limited this weekend and go wide later on, but that has been changed. Buzz and marketing have been great, so it could be a late summer sleeper. The indie-turned-family movie Dog Days opens today. I'll be shocked if it makes the top 10.


Friday, August 3, 2018

Trailer: If Beale Street Could Talk

Much anticipated adaptation of the James Baldwin classic, written and directed by Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). Can we get Regina King an Oscar to go with those two Emmys?

Thursday, August 2, 2018

Box: Remember 'Goodbye Christopher Robin' from last year?

1. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $29m / $118m / $195m
2. Christopher Robin - $25m / $25m / $115m
3. The Spy Who Dumped Me - $15m / $15m / $56m
4. The Darkest Minds - $10m / $11m / $30m
5. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again - $8.5m / $90m / $115m
6. The Equalizer 2 - $7.5m / $78.5m / $100m
7. Hotel Transylvania 3 - $6.5m / $134m / $154m
8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies - $4.5m / $20m / $29m
**Ant Man and the Wasp - $4.5m / $193m / $205m
10. The Incredibles 2 - $4m / $581.5m / $595m
11. Eighth Grade - $3.5m / $7m / $20m
***Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $3.5m / $405m / $415m
***Death of a Nation - $3m / $3m / $10m

4 openers and one expansion for the first weekend of August. Christopher Robin, despite having an embargo that lifts tomorrow, is probably headed for a leggy run. Spy Who Dumped Me has mostly mixed reactions, but could also show some nice legs. Darkest Minds is a leftover from the YA/dystopia genre and will perform as such. Death of a Nation is the latest from that shitty dude who I'm not even going to bother googling to spell his name correctly. Since they can't use Hillary or Obama to scare people any more, I guess it's just the death of the whole nation? Ending on a positive note, Eighth Grade goes wide this weekend after a very successful limited run. Hopefully, it continues to do well as summer winds down.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Box: The CavStache arrives!

1. Mission: Impossible - Fallout - $64m / $64m / $215m
2. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again - $18.5m / $73m / $120m
3. The Equalizer 2 - $18m / $69m / $110m
4. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies - $15m / $15m / $40m
5. Hotel Transylvania 3 - $12.5m / $119m / $155m
6. Ant Man and the Wasp - $8.5m / $183m / $205m
7. The Incredibles 2 - $7m / $572m / $592m
8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - $6.5m / $397m / $415m
9. Skyscraper - $6m / $60m / $73m
10. The First Purge - $2.5m / $65.5m / $70m

I'm not sure how many theaters Blindspotting is expanding to (most likely just around the wide threshold) but I doubt it makes the top 10. Its buzz seems lighter than Sorry To Bother You. Last weekend saw a surprise upset for The Equalizer 2 over Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again. MM:HWGA regained the #1 slot on Monday and will have stronger weekdays and better holds, so it'll be the winner in the long run. Arriving this weekend is Mission: Impossible - Fallout. Reviews are very good, so it should give the franchise's highest grosser (the second installment, believe it or not) a run for its money. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies also opens. Reviews for it are also very good, so it might be a little sleeper. It's also the last animated film of the summer. The next one is Smallfoot at the end of September.