Announcing Tuesday morning by Zazie Beetz and Jack Quaid.
I suspect the surprises will be gone by the time the announcement concludes, as most of the winners look pretty predictable from here on out.
The tech categories will be dominated by four films: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Barbie.
The acting categories, outside of Leading Actor, have several spots up for grabs.
Will Origin's last minute social media push cause it to pull a To Leslie?
So here goes...
VISUAL EFFECTS
THE CREATOR
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY: VOL. 3
INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY
POOR THINGS
alt: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The bakeoff was those 6, plus Society of the Snow, Napoleon, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning, and Rebel Moon - Part 1: Child of Fire. These contenders have too many dashes and colons. I'll fully admit I think a lot of us are hopedicting Godzilla just because that movie is so great and deserves recognition somewhere.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"IT NEVER WENT AWAY" - AMERICAN SYMPHONY
"I'M JUST KEN" - BARBIE
"WHAT WAS I MADE FOR" - BARBIE
"THE FIRE INSIDE" - FLAMIN' HOT
"ROAD TO FREEDOM" - RUSTIN
alt: "Dance the Night" - Barbie
They can only nominate two Barbie songs. I wish Dua Lipa was winning this. And they really are just gonna nominate Diane Warren forever, aren't they? Calling a song from a Cheetos movie "The Fire Inside" feels like self parody. Other prediction: Even if Dua misses, she's probably the show opener.
MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
THE BOY AND THE HERON
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
SOUND
FERRARI
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: The Killer
Bakeoff was those plus Dead Reckoning, The Creator, Barbie, and Napoleon.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
alt: Beau Is Afraid
Bakeoff was those plus Golda, Last Voyage of the Demeter, Napoleon, and Ferrari. I don't particularly care for Demeter but I'd be happy with it getting a nod. Horror is so underrepresented in this category.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
ASTEROID CITY
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
alt: Maestro
There's also Zone and Napoleon.
COSTUME DESIGN
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
NAPOLEON
POOR THINGS
WONKA
alt: Oppenheimer
The technical category Oppenheimer is most likely to sit out.
FILM EDITING
ANATOMY OF A FALL
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
alt: Barbie
That lineup might be for least editing given the runtimes.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: El Conde
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
FALLEN LEAVES
PERFECT DAYS
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: The Teachers' Lounge
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
AMERICAN SYMPHONY
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
FOUR DAUGHTERS
STILL: A MICHAEL J. FOX MOVIE
alt: Beyond Utopia
ANIMATED FEATURE
THE BOY AND THE HERON
ELEMENTAL
NIMONA
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM
alt: Robot Dreams
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
AMERICAN FICTION
BARBIE
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
OPPENHEIMER
POOR THINGS
alt: The Zone of Interest
This lineup just makes the most sense.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANATOMY OF A FALL
THE HOLDOVERS
MAESTRO
MAY DECEMBER
PAST LIVES
alt: Saltburn
Maestro seems the weakest. May December's buzz peaked at the middle of December, then fell off a cliff. I think it's still safe. Air could be another contender, but Saltburn seems like it could be the closest to making the lineup despite its divisive nature.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
STERLING K. BROWN - AMERICAN FICTION
ROBERT DE NIRO - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
ROBERT DOWNEY JR - OPPENHEIMER
RYAN GOSLING - BARBIE
MARK RUFFALO - POOR THINGS
alt: Willem Dafoe - Poor Things
Oof, not sure what to do beyond the Robs & Ryan. There's also newcomers Dominic Sessa and Charles Melton. The former has had a last minute surge, but I don't buy him getting in here without a SAG nom. I just also think he's too much of a co-lead, but that's never stopped them before. Melton had all the buzz at the beginning of the season, but as pointed out above May hit a roadblock somewhere over the holidays.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
EMILY BLUNT - OPPENHEIMER
DANIELLE BROOKS - THE COLOR PURPLE
PENELOPE CRUZ - FERRARI
JODIE FOSTER - NYAD
DA'VINE JOY RANDOLPH - THE HOLDOVERS
alt: Julianne Moore - May December
Randolph is in and probably the biggest lock of the acting categories. Emily will finally get her long overdue first Oscar nom. I would say Danielle is third, but Color Purple has underperformed all season. The last two slots could go anyway from Penelope Cruz, America Ferrera, Jodie Foster, Claire Foy, Sandra Hüller, Rachel McAdams, Julianne Moore, to Rosamund Pike. In the end, I went with the SAG lineup. Not too confident, but Cruz is just a walking Oscar clip. I'll be so happy for that nom.
LEADING ACTOR
BRADLEY COOPER - MAESTRO
COLMAN DOMINGO - RUSTIN
PAUL GIAMATTI - THE HOLDOVERS
CILLIAN MURPHY - OPPENHEIMER
JEFFREY WRIGHT - AMERICAN FICTION
alt: Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
Barry Keoghan has a bit of late surge with Saltburn's buzz hitting at the right time, but the category looks too competitive for him to break in. This is the SAG lineup and the one that makes the most sense. Leo and Colman are very close for the last slot.
LEADING ACTRESS
LILY GLADSTONE - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
SANDRA HÜLLER - ANATOMY OF A FALL
CAREY MULLIGAN - MAESTRO
MARGOT ROBBIE - BARBIE
EMMA STONE - POOR THINGS
alt: Annette Bening - Nyad
I think Bening gets the "You're a veteran, but you're not going to win, so we won't nominate you!" spot. Outside of them, there's Greta Lee, Natalie Portman, Fantasia Barrino, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor. The latter enjoyed a last minute campaign and could surprise. I think Robbie is probably the weak one, and wouldn't be surprised if she missed because she's getting a producer nom for Picture.
DIRECTING
ALEXANDER PAYNE - THE HOLDOVERS
MARTIN SCORSESE - KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
CHRISTOPHER NOLAN - OPPENHEIMER
YORGOS LANTHIMOS - POOR THINGS
JONATHAN GLAZER - THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: Greta Gerwig - Barbie
Or Justine Triet. Congrats to those men! I'm really surprised we've gotten this far without any controversy over Payne erupting. A lot of people dropped Yorgos after the BAFTA miss, but that would be a Denis Villeneuve-level shock given what a visual film it is. I'd say Nolan is the only true lock here. Can't wait to see the meltdowns when Cooper actually gets this.
BEST PICTURE
AMERICAN FICTION
ANATOMY OF A FALL
BARBIE
THE HOLDOVERS
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
MAESTRO
OPPENHEIMER
PAST LIVES
POOR THINGS
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
alt: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
I have no idea what to put as the alt. Maybe Saltburn or Society of the Snow? This lineup is the PGA lineup, which hasn't happened since the expanded field started.
Tally:
Killers of the Flower Moon - 12
Oppenheimer - 12
Poor Things - 12
Barbie - 8
Maestro - 7
The Holdovers - 6
The Zone of Interest - 6
American Fiction - 4
Anatomy of a Fall - 4
20 Days in Mariupol - 2
American Symphony - 2
The Boy and the Heron - 2
Ferrari - 2
Past Lives - 2
Rustin - 2
Society of the Snow - 2
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