OSCAR WINNERS!

Picture - Slumdog Millionaire
Directing - Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor - Sean Penn, Milk
Actress - Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supp. Actor - Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supp. Actress - Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay - Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapted Screenplay - Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
Art Direction - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design - The Duchess
Film Editing - Slumdog Millionaire
Makeup - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Song - "Jai Ho", Slumdog Millionaire
Original Score - Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Mixing - Slumdog Millionaire
Sound Editing - The Dark Knight
Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Animated Feature - Wall-E
Documentary Feature - Man on Wire
Foreign Language Film - Departures
Animated Short - La Maison En Petits Cubes
Live Action Short - Spielzeugland
Documentary Short - Smile Pinki

Happy OSCAR Day!

Be back later tonight/tomorrow/whenever I feel like it with winners, commentary, best dressed, blah blah blah.

Go MILK!

Have a great night, everybody!

PreDIX: The Top 8

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Chance of winning -
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 50%
The Reader - 35%
Frost/Nixon - 10%
Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 4%
Doubt - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. The Reader
2. Frost/Nixon
3. Doubt
4. Slumdog Millionaire
5. Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This category really sucks this year. Original screenplay is where its at.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Chance of winning -
MILK - 36%
Wall-E - 25%
Happy-Go-Lucky - 18%
In Bruges -16%
Frozen River - 5%

Personal Rank:
1. In Bruges
2. Happy-Go-Lucky
3. Milk
4. Wall-E
5. Frozen River

A fabulous lineup. Sad that the next set of 5 screenplays (#6-10, whatever they might have been) were probably better than all of the adapted screenplay noms. I look forward to Dustin Lance Black's speech.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Chance of winning -
PENELOPE CRUZ, VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA - 32%
Viola Davis - 28%
Amy Adams - 15%
Marisa Tomei - 14%
Taraji P. Henson - 11%

Personal Rank:
1. Penelope Cruz
2. Marisa Tomei
3. Amy Adams
4. Viola Davis
5. Taraji P. Henson

A really terrific lineup of actresses, not a terrific lineup of performances. Decent, not terrific. Most people have Adams last, but I can't help but feeling she has more industry support than some think especially considering she deserved to win 3 years ago for Junebug. Davis has the potential to the big upset out of the big 8 categories. Henson might be a way to reward Benjamin in a top category. I think Penelope has this in the bag, but given that Winslet won most of the major awards in supporting for Reader, I think people might just be thrown off. And then there's the reasoning people have for predicting Tomei - the same reason some predicted her to win for In the Bedroom: to prove her Oscar win for My Cousin Vinny was for real. Fo real?


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Chance of winning -
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT - 75%
Josh Brolin - 9%
Robert Downey Jr - 8%
Philip Seymour Hoffman - 6%
Michael Shannon - 2%

PERSONAL RANK:
1. Josh Brolin
2. Heath Ledger
3. Robert Downey Jr
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman
5. Michael Shannon

If I were an Academy voter, there'd be NO QUESTION here as to who would receive my vote: Heath. Despite my thinking that Brolin gave the better performance, Heath was royally robbed for his Brokeback performance. This also would be why if I were trashed (and an Academy member - then again aren't most academy members drunk when filling out the ballot) I'd vote for Amy Adams this year.


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chance of winning-
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER - 36%
Sean Penn - 35%
Frank Langella - 20%
Richard Jenkins - 7%
Brad Pitt - 2%

Peronal rank:
1. Mickey Rourke
2. Sean Penn
3. Frank Langella
4. Richard Jenkins
5. Brad Pitt

I can't recall the last time 2 more deserving performances went head to head like this. Either Sean or Mickey, I'll be doing a Sharon Stone-esque one man standing ovation when Harvery or the Ram win. Which probably means Nixon will win.


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

Chance of winning-
KATE WINSLET, THE READER - 34%
Meryl Streep - 28%
Anne Hathaway - 20%
Melissa Leo - 12%
Angelina Jolie - 6%

Personal Rank:
1. Anne Hathaway
2. Kate Winslet
3. Melissa Leo
4. Meryl Streep
5. Angelina Jolie

Let's get this out of the way: Kate DESERVED to win for Eternal Sunshine. SHOULD HAVE WON. But didn't. I don't have a problem with her winning at all - her or Leo (Melissa, not D-cap). Jolie and Streep are fillers to me, even though Meryl winning would probably be the high point of the night. Kate was better in her other R movie this year, but Anne is really above all these women. TEAMHATHAWAY4LYFE! Though, as a fAnne, I think it would be bad for her to win now. The WINSLUTS will eat her alive. There's lots of cliques and bad blood in the best actress category every year. Same shit, different year.


BEST DIRECTING:

Chances of winning-
DANNY BOYLE, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 45%
David Fincher - 19%
Stephen Daldry - 18%
Gus Van Sant - 17%
Ron Howard - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. Gus Van Sant
2. Danny Boyle
3. David Fincher
4. Stephen Daldry
5. Ron Howard

Well, it's pretty cool that the director of 28 Days Later will have an Oscar.


BEST PICTURE!

Chance of winning-
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE - 45%
Milk - 20%
The Reader - 19%
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 15%
Frost/Nixon - 1%

Personal Rank:
1. Milk
2. The Reader
3. Slumdog Millionaire
4. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5. Frost/Nixon

When it comes to the Academy and Oscar-watching, rule #1 - Know that they like to give out makeup Oscars. Remember when Brokeback won,....er, it lost. Remember that? Everyone said the next gay film nominated for Best Picture - and as much as I would have liked The Departed to be a gay film, it was not - would win. Well, bleh. SLUMDOG has won EVERYTHING. EVERY GUILD. EVERY MAJOR AWARD. It would be almost impossible for it to lose. Even if it deserves to and probably won't be too well liked in a few years. Rule #2 of Oscar-watching: Weinstein owns the Academy. And I will admit, The Reader is a movie that has grown with me. Maybe it's Lena Olin's scene? Dunno. Benjamin Button deserved about 4 of its 13 nominations, maybe less. Frost/Nixon is typical Ron Howard fare: well made and technically flashy enough to make you not notice how hollow it is. But really - Milk is so far ahead of the other 4 that to the Academy, the phrase "Got Milk?" shouldn't even be a question.


Been a fun season, huh?

You are right. It has not.

Oscar Predictions - Everything but the Big 8!

So the Oscars are Sunday night! WAHOO!

Apparently, the show will open with Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway doing some kind of musical number.

I just came.

Also, there's some big Baz Luhrman-directed number with Hugh, Zac Efron, Vanessa Hudgeons, Beyonce, Dominic Cooper and Amanda Seyfried.

"Confirmed" Presenters: (since the Academy is not confirming any presenters this year, other various news sources have stated these people will be presenting) Jennifer Aniston, Halle Berry, Jessica Biel, Marion Cotillard, Leonardo Dicaprio, Zac Efron, Tina Fey, Jennifer Lopez, Steve Martin, Sarah Jessica Parker, Robert Pattison, Kristen Stewart, Tilda Swinton


Javier Bardem will NOT be there as he is in Barcelona. Probably with Vicky and Cristina.

ANIMATED FEATURE:
Bolt - Kung Fu Panda - Wall-E
(Haven't seen Bolt)
WILL WIN: Wall-E
SHOULD WIN: Wall-E

ART DIRECTION:
Changeling - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - The Duchess - Revolutionary Road
WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: Changeling

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Changeling - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - The Reader - Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Slumdog Millionaire

COSTUME DESIGN:
Australia - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Duchess - Milk - Revolutionary Road
WILL WIN: The Duchess
SHOULD WIN: The Duchess

FILM EDITING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - Frost/Nixon - Milk - Slumdog Millionaire
WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Milk

MAKEUP:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - Hellboy 2: The Golden Army
WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: Hellboy 2: The Golden Army

ORIGINAL SCORE:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Defiance - Milk - Slumdog Millionaire - Wall-E
(Haven't seen Defiance)
WILL WIN: Slumdog Millionaire
SHOULD WIN: Milk

ORIGINAL SONG:
"Jai Ho" - Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" - Slumdog Millionaire
"Down to Earth" - Wall-E
WILL WIN: "Jai Ho"
SHOULD WIN: "Down to Earth"

SOUND MIXING:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - Slumdog Millionaire - Wall-E - Wanted
WILL WIN: The Dark Knight
SHOULD WIN: The Dark Knight

SOUND EDITING:
The Dark Knight - Iron Man - Slumdog Millionaire - Wall-E - Wanted
WILL WIN: The Dark Knight
SHOULD WIN: The Dark Knight

VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - The Dark Knight - Iron Man
WILL WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SHOULD WIN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
The Baader Meinhof Complex - The Class - Departures - Revanche - Waltz With Bashir
WILL WIN: Waltz With Bashir

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
The Betrayal - Encounters at the End of the World - The Garden - Man on Wire - Trouble the Water
WILL WIN: Man on Wire

LIVE ACTION SHORT:
Auf der Strecke - Manon on the Asphalt - New Boy - The Pig - Spielzeugland
WILL WIN: Spielzeugland (???)

ANIMATED SHORT:
La Maison en Petits Cubes - Lavatory - Oktapodi - Presto - This Way Up
WILL WIN: Oktapodi (???)

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The Conscience of Nhem En - The Final Inch - Smile Pinki - The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
WILL WIN: The Final Inch (???)

Be back tomorrow with the big 8 and more Oscar news!

BAFTA, WGA & DGA Winners and Oscar Class Picture

British Academy of Film & Television Arts:
BEST PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST ACTOR: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
BRITISH FILM: Man on Wire
ANIMATED FILM: WALL•E
CARL FOREMAN AWARD: Steve McQueen, Hunger
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: I’ve Loved You So Long
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
MAKEUP and HAIR: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
SCORE: AR Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
SOUND: Slumdog Millionaire
EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire
COSTUMES: The Duchess
RISING STAR: Noel Clarke
SHORT ANIMATION: Wallace & Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death
ACADEMY FELLOWSHIP: Terry Gilliam


WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA:
Original - Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Adapated - Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire


DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire


And I think that about wraps the major precursors up? My lack of updates has to do with my total ambivalence to this award season. Don't get me wrong - I've enjoyed almost every award show this year and have thoroughly read the coverage of the unaired ceremonies. I just can't get over the fact that Slumdog Millionaire - a good, solidly crafted crowdpleaser and nothing more - is sweeping like this. I side with those who say that in five years everyone will look back and say "what the fuck were we thinking?"

Having said that, I think we could be in for one of the most emotional Oscar telecasts in years. It extends well beyond the Ledger moment, but I expect Winslet, Cruz and screenwriter Black to fully bring on the waterworks. And I look forward to either Sean or Mickey being cool or classy when accepting. Then, of course, we can always count on Meryl for an insane speech like the one she delivered at the SAGs. Here's hoping! Speaking of speeches, I think Kate has been great during all her speeches. It is so sad this great is getting dogged by the press (particuarly from her home country) when she's been the right amount of emotion and class.

Two weeks to go.


Lastly, here is something I always look forward to: The Oscar Class Picture '08. Or is it '09?

A friend of mine...well, I won't name him here. Let's call him Mr. Miller. No, that's too obvious. We'll call him Mr. Greg. Mr. Greg pointed out that "Yes, Darren, you always look forward to this. You like looking to see who is standing next to whom, what they are wearing, what order they are in and which actors form a rhombus."

Well, I can't quite spot any star-powered-rhombi. Does't Amy Adams look heavenly? Viola as well! Taraji, Anne and Penelope line up! Penelope looks amazing! I don't like what Anne or Taraji are wearing. Kate is hugging Ellen Kuras (the DP of Eternal Sunshine), by the way. Dustin Lance Black is as sexy as ever. And is Sean Penn smiling? Mickey Rourke probably doesn't even know the people his arms around, but someone had to prop him up. Gus Van Sant looks bored. Marisa Tomei does not age. And the power area is clearly just left of the statue.

Here it is.